"But Flight 103 was Behind Schedule..."

December 31 2010
lat edits Jan 3 2011

Note throughout: This post, text and graphics, are imprecise and not fleshed out with detailed research. The concepts are general enough, however, that this is acceptable. Do see beneath comments from Rolfe, who has looked at this better and offers more in a few long submissions.

"But Flight 103 was Behind Schedule" is one of the most persistent myths of the Lockerbie bombing. It's the standard answer when anyone asks why the Libyans set their timer so early. For example, the BBC Conspiracy Files episode on the bombing (2008) starts out:
In the end, it came down, as most things do, to a simple twist of fate. 600 seconds. That's all that was in it. Had the bomb which destroyed the Pan Am exploded just ten minutes later, the plane would have been over open water, and all the evidence most likely lost at the bottom of the sea. But as it was, the bomb blew up over land, and the small town of Lockerbie became a by-word for the worst act of terrorism ever to take place in Britain.
A montage of the effects is shown, and the next words, curiously, are: "the investigation turned on one tiny piece of evidence ... this fragment [shown, of an MST-13 timer] was the breakthrough that cracked the case." The time of explosion over land - 7:03 pm, just 38 minutes after takeoff - wasn't caused by "a simple twist of fate." It was a time set intentionally on a timer to achieve the goal of destroying the plane and, we've always been told, ditching the evidence at sea.

Of course the twist of fate in mind is the fabled delay in take-off that supposedly made the jet miss its date with anonymity. The  show specified ten minutes from the coast, suggesting a delay of at least that, if this interpretation is of any value.

First, if it is of any value, it isn't much. Consider the large span the plane was to take - crossing the entire Atlantic, on a northern great circle path from London to New York, something a bit like the image below. It was first to be vectored out over the northern length of Great Britain, a standard route for this flight (see below). After this long pass over Airstrip One,  there followed thousands of miles, several hours, of nothing but deep, icey ocean passing beneath. A host of minutes, aside from 7:03, were there to pick from between Novia Scotia and the original Scotland, ideally somewhere way out there between them.

Instead we learn the plane was ten minutes from the coast and the plotters had aimed for the coast. By the official story, they had an immense picture window of opportunity available, but they aimed only for just over the lower sill, and missed. It's a simple enough concept no picture is needed, but in case anyone wants to double-check the scale and how easy it is to hit that window, there it is. Put simply, green is smart, orange is stupid. Official story supporters clearly think nothing of the intelligence of the Libyans who they believe planned out the murder of so many Americans.

But was the plane behind schedule at all? Excerpt from the trial transcripts, speaking with air traffic controller Ronald Brown, Day 1, May 3 2000. [pp 154-158]
A [...] "1800" is the planned departure time of this flight.
Q What exactly does a planned departure time mean?
A The time at which an aircraft is expected to shut its doors and be ready for -- to make its
Q Now, I take it it's not the same time as the time that it actually takes off from the ground?
A It's not the same time as it would take off from the ground. It is the time that the aircraft is expected to shut its doors. It will then have to request start-up clearance. It will then have to start its engines. It will have to get taxi clearance and -- before it can possibly take off.

The plane then "departed" - pushed away from the gate - at 6:04, four minutes behind schedule. The feeder flight PanAm 103A was fairly late in arriving, and threatened to delay the whole operation. This flight was carrying about 1/4 of 103's passengers and luggage - including the bomb, we were told - but this was managed swiftly and flight 103 was only the slightest bit behind schedule at this point.

It did take 21 minutes then, including a second last-minute loading at a separate gate, before wheels up at 6:25. That may have been slightly longer than average, but not by much from my limited airport experience. It should easily have been foreseen by any sane plotter. But the Libyans aren't sane, we've been told, and must have simply confused departure with takeoff time, aside from presuming no delays. This must be what caused them to hit so far below the windowsil - a full 25 minutes in this case.

Otherwise, it's worth wondering if the blast timed to be over land really was a fluke. Did the plottes set it up that way? Maybe they wanted to be found? Nah, that sounds stupid. No wonder no one has argued that yet.

To establish the flight Path across the UK, I return to the conversation with ATC Brown:
Q And then A20 route?
A It was a low level airway from London Heathrow going through a reporting point called
Trent, which is TNT.
Q And then, "upper alfa 2 Pole Hill UB for [156] Margo direct Glasgow."
A That's the route that the aircraft would continue to take. After Trent, it would proceed via Upper Humber 2, via Pole Hill, upper Bravo 4 to Margo, flight direct from Margo to Glasgow, and then follows the upper air route 590 to 59 north and 10 west.
Q And then we see, "/ mach No. 0.84." What does that refer to?
A As it crosses the oceanic boundary and comes under oceanic control, the separation on
the ocean is made by reference to a mach number rather than a physical speed and knot.
And therefore the aircraft had planned to fly at mach decimal 84.
Q Mach being the speed of sound?
A Mach being the speed of sound.
Q And then "estimated elapsed times," what does that refer to?
A The estimated elapsed time in number 5 are -- it takes him one hour 24 minutes to get to
10 degrees west
. To 20 west is two hour nine minutes. To 30 west is two hour 47 minutes.
So it's cumulative times as it proceeds across the north Atlantic.
Q Thank you very much.

Some posters at the JREF forum helped me sort this out [link]. Something like a great circle-based fight path, still standard today, but from local weather problems arcing around Ireland, northeast across Great Britain to its rocky far corner. The flight plan passes roughly over Glasgow and, as "Rolfe" noted, nearly over the fabled Isle of Skye. This is my own rough graphic, tracing what others had found and noted. ATC Brown mentions the coordinates 59N and 10W. I fudged the path a bit north of the paths traced from, but it's still a bit south of the 59 line. So this is only approximately the spot to mark as a planned 84 minutes out.

But in general terms, we can see that Flight 103 would not be over even the loosest sense of ocean until approximately one hour after leaving ground - over 20 minutes later than it did, as opposed to the "600 seconds" cited by the Conspiracy Files.

Ocean would come sooner on a more southerly path, also standard. But 38 minutes out from expected take-off, marked here with a faint arc, is only over southern Scotland or Northern Ireland, depending. The orange smudge would be at least partly over land no matter the exact route, set for 7:03 like that.

And further, one would be a fool to just pinpoint the coastline. Clearly deep water is preferable to shallow coastal waters for hiding evidence, but more importantly, one should think in three dimensions and consider what six miles of elevation and air movement within it can do. Prevailing inland winds and early scatter of some bomb debris, giving the farthest spread to some of the best clues, could be foreseen. What happened over a small patch near Lockerbie left a trail of evidence extending tens of miles east clear across Scotland into northern England and to the North Sea (orange in image). Ironically, the only evidence delivered to Neptune would have been on the other side of the land. One would want to clear the last shore by at least that width to keep everything over the ocean.

As we started out, there is no reason not to aim for somewhere closer to above the mid-Atlantic ridge. But if one is impatient and needs the bomb to blow right after passing through three airports undetected, around the edge of the map is about the earliest point one should have aimed for. Even that is hoping for only slight delays, but considering effectively none, they undershot by a good 30 minutes at least. Stupid Libyans.

Stupider than you can know, we've been told in different words and even in "forensic science." They were using one of the most exclusive timers ever to fail with, a unit that pointed right to them and had blabbermouth Bollier fused into the story.  A 1/2" miracle  fragment of the MST-13 survived and fell on land, just as programmed. And they used a radio for their anonymous hidden bomb that, among all models on earth, was perhaps the only one to be associated mostly with the Libyan market. Several fragments of casing, circuit board, and the paper manual cover survived and fell on land. And the brown suitcase that witness Giaka saw the accused with the day before the bombing held all this together along with the clothes that Megrahi bought on December 7, brand new at a small shop that doesn't usually cater to Arabs. He did this at and past closing time, to maximize the memorability of his 6-foot-seeming frame looming over the Maltese man, together hallucinating rainfall in the shadow of confusing Christmas lights.

And they put this all, with the umbrella, into one spotted package, and opted to just drop it all on Scotland at 7:03. Or so we were told.

Or, for those who aren't aware of what this early 38-minute detonation means, vis-a-vis a more rational explanation, see the post Thirty-Eight Minutes. The time was selected by a combination of crude devices, designed of necessity, and relying on the friggin' Semtex-H blast to destroy all clues. This most likely did happen, prior to other clues (see above) replacing them well after the fact.


Rolfe said...

OK, Ne'erday here, so this might make less sense than it should.

This is a topic that interests me a lot. Basically, that plane was NOT LATE. I think the myth starts from Jim Swire, who heard about the crash on Lockerbie at about 7.55 (same time as I did, it was a "breaking news" flash at the end of the Channel 4 news), and some sort of denial mechanism kicked in and he believed it wasn't Flora's flight because that would have been "far out over the Atlantic" by then.

By 7.55, yes, especially if you're assuming that a 6 o'clock departure would have taken off at 6pm. By 7.03, no.

It's bizarre that nobody seems to remember that no plane becomes airborne at its scheduled departure time. I said to David Benson that the plane wasn't late, and he said to me, "so you're saying it took off at 6pm then?" God give me strength.

The first point to present when you're talking about lateness or the lack of it is Basuta. He spent too long boozing in the departure lounge, and missed the last call for the flight. He was actually running (or maybe staggering) to the gate when the plane pushed off. When he got there, there was nobody there but Pan Am staff saying, "sorry sir".

His luggage was on the plane. Good grief, that plane should never have left without him, even "pre-Lockerbie". But the airline was worried about losing the slot. They checked. He was a US citizen on his way home. Low risk. So they let the plane leave the stand without him. By the time the plane had got as far as the taxiway, Basuta had shown up at the gate, and everybody agreed that he was genuine, and not to worry about his luggage.

It wasn't his bag that blew up.

My point is that they were so bloody worried about losing the slot, they left a passenger behind who was actually running for the plane. This is not a late plane. I think it actually left the gate at 6.03, but I imagine the exact minute is somewhere in the transcripts. They left Basuta behind in order not to miss the slot, and would you think your 6 o'clock plane was late if it left at 6.03 or 6.04?

Now, there is a bit of the transcript that really needs quoting here.

Q Can you tell us, please, what the average time is that an aircraft might take from leaving the gate to being airborne?
A It very much depends on where the gate is in relation to the departure runway. But on average you can say a minimum of 15 minutes and a maximum of 25 -- 20 to 25.

It takes between 15 and 25 minutes to become airborne after leaving the gate. PA103 became airborne 21 to 22 minutes after leaving the gate, 25 minutes after its advertised departure time. It's at the long end of the range, but it's still within it.


Rolfe said...

Next, the departure route.

This "Daventry departure" was a fairly standard route out of Heathrow to JFK. As far as I can tell it wasn't the most usual route, but it was perfectly normal.

The place to look is here.


If you watch that every day, you find that most of the flights go further south, closer to the Great Circle route. They cross Ireland, and head for Nova Scotia. However, some flights are routed so far south they cross Cornwall and miss Ireland, and some are routed right where PA103 was routed, north over England and over Lockerbie.

I believe there was bad weather over Ireland that day, or the disaster would have been in Irish jurisdiction. Or if might have gone down in the ten minutes or so it was over the Irish Sea. But the crew were given the northerly route, over Lockerbie.

The interesting bit is to look at the range of possible routes. It forms a triangle, fanning out from Heathrow, with the southerly face going south of Ireland, and the northerly crossing the Outer Hebrides.

No matter which route was taken, the overwhelming probability was that an explosion set for 7.03pm would have happened over land. Certainly on the route actually taken, the plane would have been over land for much more than ten minutes after Lockerbie. Only after Benbecula would it actually have been over the open ocean. Only a very southerly route over Cornwall would have perhaps left land behind by 7.03, and even that would have been close, and probably have required the plane to take off at the earliest possible moment, 6.15.

And as you say, look at the size of that Atlantic crossing that was ahead of it!

Planes are often a bit late, and seldom significantly early - never at the takeoff end. Nobody with any sort of brain (and whoever got that bomb on that plane had a brain) would have relied on it taking off promptly. From Heathrow, in December, in the evening. It's ridiculous. The chance that it might still have been on the tarmac at 7.03 was quite significant.

If anything, someone not aware of the geography might set a timer too late, not realising about the probable route over a fair chunk of Canada at the other end. A schoolboy might have set the timer for midnight, and crashed on Labrador. However, both Megrahi and Fhimah had worked in the airline industry. They, even more than the average Joe, would have known exactly where the window was, and would have set the timer for about 10pm.

The whole "well the terrorists thought all the evidence would sink into the Atlantic" meme is based on completely false premises.

Rolfe said...

Some people say, well, maybe the terrorists wanted the plane to explode over land! Far more horrific, after all.

There are two objections to that.

First, using a simple timer, 7.03 had a significant chance of causing an explosion on the tarmac, if the plane had missed its slot - which isn't exactly unheard-of, let's face it. That would have caused inconvenience, but no fatalities. Not a good plan.

Second, we have the Maltese clothes. What was that all about? How many ways are there of getting hold of untraceable clothes? Many. Second-hand shop. Raid a clothes-line. Big department store at a busy period and pay cash. Whatever. And do it well away from your home base, too.

Remember, if these clothes hadn't been traceable, nobody would even have thought of linking Malta to the bombing.

So these terrorists went to a small specialist shop, only 3 miles from where this fiendishly clever plan would get the bomb on the plane with no trace at all being left, and bought a bunch of brand new, locally-manufactured, eminently traceable clothes, from a retailer who turned out to be an absolute natural at Kim's game. And did it in such a way that one might almost think the buyer was trying to be noticed.


And why did they do that?

Oh, because they thought the plane would be way out over the Atlantic by the time the bomb went off, so the clothes would never be recovered.

Please, do you have a handy brick wall I can bang my head on?

ebol said...

MISSION LOCKERBIE, Doc. No. 1021.rtf.

Die Crux mit dem MST-13 Timerfragment (PT/35)

Obwohl sich die MST-13 Timer Circuit Bords in zwei Farben grün oder braun unterscheiden, konnte das wichtigste Beweis-Fragment (PT/35) des MST-13 Timers, nur als schwarz *verkohltes Fragment aufgefunden werden !
Forensische Tests zeigen, dass bei einer Explosion oder kurzer Brandzeit von Millisekunden der grüne hauchdünne Lötstoplack auf dem PC-Board und der braune Glanz total verkohlt wird !

Beweis dazu: Siehe Polizeifoto No.329, reales original Bild des MST-13 Circuit Board (mit Buchstabe "M" eingekratzt) bevor forensische Versuche gemacht wurden. Das Fragment zeigt sich weder grün noch braun.
Nur ein Fachman welchem bekannt ist, dass die MST-13 Boards in zwei Farben fabriziert wurden, kann aus den Löt/Kupferbahnen und 8 oder 9 Lagen Fiberglas bezeugen, dass das original Fragment PT/35 von einem grünen Thüring-- oder braunen Prototype--PC-Board abstammt!

Wir müssen uns mit folgender Legende über das PT/35 (MST-13) Circuit Board befassen:

1.) Die Polizei Foto No.329 zeigt das reale originale Circuit Board PT/35, angeblich aufgefunden in Lockerbie und Aufgeführt auf Seite No. 51, als grünes Circuit Board, in Dr. Hayes (RARDE) Report 181. dazu ist deutlich ein eingekratzter Buchstabe "M" sichtbar.

2.) Nach dem Besuch bei Siemens (27th of April 1990) sollten, nach der Zersägung des Circuit Boards PT/35 in 2 Teile, Fotos von PT/35 (a) und DP/31(a) vorhanden sein.
Von DP/31(a) (8 Lagen Fiberglas) existiert Foto label 419. Foto von original PT/35(a) (8Lagen Fiberglas) fehlt !

Continuation down > > >

ebol said...

continuation >>>

3.) Um Libyen mit dem PT/35 Fragment in das PanAm 103 Attentat verwickeln zukönnen musste das PT/35 Circuit Board, ein PC-Bord mit 9 Fiberglas Lagen und grünem Lötschutz-Lack sein, da MEBO Ltd. 1985-86, 20 Stück MST-13 Timer, nur mit grünen Lack und 9 Lagen Fiberglas PC-Boards nach Libyen geliefert hatte...
Nach Libyen wurden keine MST-13 Timer mit braunen Circuit Boards (Prototype) geliefert !

4.) Da am realen PT/35 Beweistück (mit 8 Lagen Fiberglas) die Brandstelle unten rechts "einmalig" war, wurde das untere Teilstück als DP/31(a) bei Fa. Siemens abgesägt und zusammen mit einem einem grünen Duplikat PT/35(b) aus (9 Lagen Fiberglas) ohne Bezeichnung mit Buchstabe "M", als Patchwork zusammengesetzt und fotographiert !

5.) Die nächste Foto zeigt das zersägte Circuit-Board als "Patchwork" aus 2 Teilen. Der grössere Teil als Label 353 = PT/35(b) ohne "M" ein Duplikat, mit 9 Lagen Fiberglas (ehemals grün), das kleinere Teil als original, Label 419 = DP/31(a) mit 8 Lagen Fiberglas (ehemals braun, Prototype).

4.) Damit ist Bewiesen, dass auf Dr. Hayes und Allen Feraday RARDE Reports, Seite No.51, vom 12th of May 1989 es nicht zutreffen kann, dass angeblich ein *grünes Timerfragment PT/35 gefunden wurde !
Die Seite 51 wurde nachträglich manipuliert und zusätzlich eingefügt, wie früher beschrieben. Ein 100% Beweis-Betrug !

by Edwin Bollier, MEBO Ltd., Switzerland. URL: www.lockerbie.ch

Rolfe said...

Edwin, that is complete rubbish, as anyone who can look at the photos can see for themselves.

Caustic Logic said...

Rolfe, thanks for that three-part add-on that's better than the original in several ways. I meant to research this post out before posting it, but these days I just put something up or, usually, I don't.

I was going to address some points in there, but Edwin distracted me. Rubbish indeed.

Much of thee points he makes are covered partly in this post.

1.) There's a letter "M" scratched in.
No. It seems to casts a faint shadow, like a fiber on the surface. Its absence in later photos is proof of surface cleaning, not a replacementt fragment that was milled to same exact micro-specifications except for the sideways "M." That's just silly, but it's what Edwin argues.

2) There's a certain photo missing? Relevance?

3) ... To Libya no MST-13 timer with brown Circuit board (prototype) was supplied!
Relevance? All photos show the fragment in question, same throughout, showing no color but somewhere in the green-blue spectrum. Your man Lumpert says he handed over a brown prototype, but has it occurred to you, Edwin, that he was pulling your leg and all of ours? I'm not impressed with his mumbling, in affidavit form or otherwise.

4) The fake was made without the letter M, and something about patchwork photos, that still didn't include the telltale "M." Plain stupid ramblings, at this point.

5) The cut-out fragment is from the original brown fragment I've yet to see, while the larger main portion is from the no-M green replacement. Barking mad werewolf grin in the moonlight, that point is.

4) (again) Thus it is proven that on Dr. Hayes and all Feraday RARDE of report, side No.51 cannot apply, of the 12th OF May 1989 it that allegedly a *green timer fragment PT/35 was found! The page 51 was later manipulated and inserted additionally, as described in former times. A 100% proof fraud!

Thus? Again, where the hell are you getting this brown thing from?

I agree page 51 appears inserted, right along with page 50 before it. Explained here. there was no examination 12 May as related on pages 50 and 51. The originals of page 50 and 56 were removed to allow for these two pages of fake work, on a Friday at the end of a two-month break. But why is Monday's work (May 15) started back on page 49?

Mission failed, except being half-right on that last point. Any money from the Libyans yet?

Caustic Logic said...

Just watch, he'll come back to make one correction - the second 4) should have been a 6), and apologize for causing confusion there. Numbers do run 4,5,6, not 4,5,4, even tho the mighty ebol (small e!) said something contrary. He's not challenging that official version. Not just yet.

ebol said...

MISSION LOCKERBIE, attn. Rolfe and Gaustic Logic

Ich lasse Euere "selbstbefriedigungs Visionen" und fragwürdigen Erklärungen.
Ich stehe vor Eueren "Fantasien", bezugsweise Wunschdenken ! Der Vorteil gegenüber Eueren Behauptungen ist, ich konnte das grössere MST-13 Teilfragment Beweismaterial, PT/35(b) und einen Tag später das kleinere Teil, DP/31(a) ab 13. September 1999 bei Procurator Mirian Watson im Polizeigebäude Dumfries in UK, längere Zeit mit meinen mitgebrachten Vergrösserungsgeräten, im Original begutachten.
Die Siegel der beiden Beweisstücke wurde gegen den Widerstand der anwesenden Polizeibeamten und Experten, auf Befehl von Procurator Watson aufgebrochen, damit ich die beiden Fragmente PT/35(b) und anderntags DP/31(a) und später beide Teile zusammen, begutachten und vergleichen konnte. Zur Absicherung meiner Erkenntnisse fragte ich um einen Beistand einer Polizei Zeugin, welche von Ms. Watson aufgeboten wurde. (siehe Polizeireport vom 17.9.1999 von Dumfries)

1.) Meine Vergrösserung am verkohlten Part DP/31(a) zeigte zweifelsfrei die realen Verbrennungs-Details equal zum original Bild (Foto 329) auf der professionellen (schwarz /weiss) Polaroid Polizeifoto von (RARDE). Ich zählte seitlich 8 Fiberglas-Gitter, das heisst das DP/31(a) musste von einem braunen Prototype PC-Circuit Board abstammen !

2.) Der Buchstabe "M" und die 3 Kratzstellen, gut sichtbar auf der Beweisfoto 329 sind klar Eingekratzt zuerkennen. Obwohl Ing. Lumpert abstreitet, dass das "M" nicht von ihm eingekratzt wurde, sondern nur die 3 Kratzstellen von ihm sind, zeigt ein Vergleich mit seiner Schrift beim Wort (M)OTOROLA, dass das "M"equal der Schrift von Lumpert entspricht!

3.) Die professionelle Polizeifoto von Fa. Siemens über den grösseren Teil des abgesägten MST-13 Timerfragment PT/35(a) mit dem eingekratzten Buchstabe "M" wurde mir zu dieser Zeit nicht gezeigt ! (fehlte angeblich) ?

4.) Der zur Prüfung vorgelegte grössere Teil, PT/35(b) entsprach nicht der original Teil-Abbildung auf der professionellen Polizeifoto 329 von (RARDE).
Kein Buchstabe "M" und keine Kratzstellen waren sichtbar ! Dazu gut sichtbar überzogener grüner Lötstoplack. Die seitlich sichtbaren Fiberglas-Gitter wurden von mir zweifelsfrei als 9 Gitter gezählt. Das bedeutet, dass das vorgelegte Beweisteil PT/35(b) ein Duplikat war, welches zum original kleineren Fragment DP/31(a) mit 8 Fiberglas-Gitter different war und eindeutig nicht vom gleichen PC-Board abstammte ! (Zeugin anwesend)

5.) Somit dürfte absolut klar sein, um Libyen in das PanAm 103 Attentat zuverwickeln, der grössere Teil als grünes Duplikat PT/35(b) mit 9 Fiberglas-Gitter, mit dem original bei Fa. Siemens abgesägten PT/35(a) mit 8 Fiberglas-Gitter ausgetauscht wurde !

6.) E. Bollier und Ing. Lumpert können auf verlangen innerhalb 15 Minuten, technische Gericht-Experten 100% davon überzeugen, dass die im Scottish Gerichts-Archiv aufbewahrten Beweis-Teile DP/35(b) mit 9 Fiberglas-Gitter, ein Duplikat ist (nicht equal mit Foto 329). DP/31(a) mit 8 Fiberglas-Gitter equal mit Foto 329 ist (von einem ex braunen Prototype PC-Board abstammend).

by Edwin Bollier, MEBO Ltd. Switzerland. URL: www.lockerbie.ch

ebol said...

Weitere Bemerkungen zu MST-13 Timerfragment PT/35.

Um dem MST-13 Timerfragment PT/35 den Status als Indizienbeweis gerecht zuwerden, musste das Fragment verschiedene Stufen durchlaufen:

1.) Start. Ing. U. Lumpert übergibt an Officer Peter Flückiger "BUPO", am 22. Juni 1989, unerlaubterweise eine MST-13 Printplatine, Farbe braun, fabriziert mit 8 Gitter-Fiberglas, (Prototype) nicht bestückt mit elektronischen Bauteilen; angeblich für eine polizeiliche Untersuchung eines befreundeten Polizei-Korps.

2.) März 1989, Peter Flückiger und sein Chef besuchen MEBO Ltd., Bollier und Meister. Es wurde uns das erste Mal eine professionelle Polaroid Polizeifoto (schwarz/weiss) vorgelegt mit der Abbildung des verkohlten MST-13 Timerfragment, später als PT/35 bezeichnet. Nach meinen Erinnerungen kam die Foto von FBI.
Die Foto wurde später vermutlich als No.329 bekannt. Die Abbildung auf No.329 zeigte das verkohlte MST-13 Timerfragment mit 2 schlecht verzinnten Kupferbahnen, ein Lötstützpunkt (1); 3 Kratzstellen und einem eingekratzten Buchstabe "M".

3.) Da auf dem Lötstützpunkt (1) ersichtlich kein Relais angelötet gewesen war, hatten wir sofort festgestellt, dass das MST-13 Circuit-Board von einem nicht funktionsfähigem Prototype PC-board abstammte.
Dies war auch Grund dafür, das MST-13 Fragment im Original zu sehen. (Besuch bei FBI, Scottish Police) mehrere Gesuche bei Lord Advocate während 10 Jahren das Fragment im Orginal zu sehen. Erst 1999 wurde in Dumfries bei Procurator Watson erlaubt die beiden Teilfragmente zu begutachten.

4.) Ab Mitte 1990 musste für FBI und Scottish Police klar sein, dass mit dem ersten original Abbild des MST-13 Fragments, nach unserem Statements zu BUPO, Libyen nicht mit diesem Fragment in das PanAm 103 Attentat verwickelt werden konnte !

5.) Das MST-13 Fragment durchlief, angeblich aus forensischen Gründen, mehrer technische Firmen. Der absolut unnötige, aber aus gezielten Gründen, wichtigste Besuch war am (27th of April 1990) bei Fa. Siemens in München.
Dort wurde aus vorsätzlichen Gründen eine speziefisch angebrannte Stelle herausgesägt und später mit DP/31(a) bezeichnet. Das grössere Teilstück wurde logischerweise vermutlich mit PT/35(a) bezeichnet.
Von den getrennten Teilstücken PT/35(a) und DP/31(a) wurden bei Siemens je eine Laborfoto gemacht. Die eine Labor-Foto von DP/31(a) ist vorhanden, die adere Siemens Labor-Foto von PT/35(a) ist bis heute vakannt !
Ref: Siemens AG labor photographs ZPL-TW11-14; Siemens AG report ZPL-TW12, (28. April 1990); BKA report STV87/90F.

6.) Mit diversen Fotomontagen (z.B von JREF) wurde versucht mit falschen Fakts z.B. den kriminellen Umtausch des grösseren original Teilfragments PT/35(a) ex braun, bestehend aus 8 Fiberglas-Gitter; in ein Duplikat PT/35(b) ex grün, bestehend mit 9 Fiberglas-Gitter zu vertuschen...

by Edwin Bollier, MEBO Ltd., Switzerland

Rolfe said...

Hell with this, and I can't see an ignore feature.

Adam, I don't completely dismiss the Lumpert story, because the date he says he handed over the prototype is pretty much on the nail for the time window when Orkin/Thurman would have had to acquire a sample timer to fabricate the fragment, if our deductions are correct. And I don't believe Lumpert, or Edwin for that matter, would necessarily have realised that.

I don't see that "M" shape having a shadow. Eddie suggested it was a scratch made by Hayes to see or show the real colour of the circuit board underneath the soot that would have been on it, and that later the soot was cleaned from the whole thing. I don't know if that's right either. But it is something superficial that's been cleaned away, and it doesn't look very deliberate either.

The rest of Edwin's stuff about substitutions is complete horse-feathers. Let's just ignore it.

Rolfe said...

Back to the subject on the card.

I think I was wrong about when Jim and Jane Swire heard about the disaster. I tend to assume that everybody in Britain heard about it at 7.55, but in fact most people don't watch the C4 news at that time - the audience share isn't very high.

The main early news is 6 to 7, on both BBC1 and ITV. Obviously, these bulletins were too early. Channel 4 runs from 7 until just before 8, and the news caught the tail end of that as a "breaking news" announcement. There were no pictures of course. Just the announcer reading the text of the story, and I think a map schematic to show where Lockerbie was.

Then there was nothing until 9 o'clock, which was then the main BBC1 late evening news. I just bit my nails until that came on. That's the clip shown in documentaries and in Unfinished Business. It was the main, first item, and the journalists had been working overtime. By then they had actual video of Sherwood Crescent blazing in the darkness. It was absolutely horrific.

I checked The Maltese Double Cross to see what Jim Swire actually said.

Jane and I were both at home in Bromsgrove and I was actually in my study doing a kind of family calendar with a picture for each month for various people for Christmas. And Jane called me through because she’d heard on the television there was an air crash. And at first, my first reaction was that it couldn’t be anything to do with Flora because I thought she would have been out in mid-Atlantic by that time, and in fact of course we didn’t know that the plane had been delayed a little bit. But I just came through and we watched these dreadful pictures of the little town of Lockerbie in flames.

If that is an accurate memory, he didn't know about it until 9 o'clock. He knew Flora's plane left at six. I think his first reaction was, but Flora would be way out over the Atlantic by now. Of course the crash had happened two hours earlier, but you don't always factor that in at a moment like that.

I think that's the source for this constant "the plane was late". No it wasn't. The whole departure sequence is gone through in minute detail in the Zeist transcripts, and nobody once suggests the flight was delayed. As I said, quite the contrary - they were so keen to leave on time they left Mr. Basuta stranded at the gate. And according to the guy who knew, the Heathrow air departure controller, the earliest the flight could possibly have taken off was 6.15. 6.25 was within the normal window allowing for getting from the gate to the runway and making the take-off run.

Rolfe said...

That graphic is very good, Adam. I think you've got the plane's course pretty much right. Also, the point you make about the strong wind is a good one. The timer fragment was (allegedly) found about 20 miles east of Lockerbie, and a lot of the important evidence would have landed on land even if the plane had been as much as 20 miles off the coast when it exploded.

I think you could add the debris trail to the schematic - it would underline your point. I also think you could add other information that would be very compelling.

Remember, the terrorists couldn't have known in advance which course the plane was going to be assigned. The web page I linked to shows that these planes usually fly approximately on the great circle route, which crosses Ireland. If you were guessing, you'd probably assume that would be the route taken. However, there was bad weather over Ireland that evening.

What I think you could add is the wedge shape of the range of possible flight paths, from the southerly one that crosses Cornwall and misses Ireland, to the northerly one which is only a little north of the PA103 path that night.

Then you could add a couple of arcs - one showing where the plane would be at 7.03 if it had taken off at the time it did, on any of these routes, and one ten minutes further out, as it would have been if it had managed to take off as early as possible, at 6.15.

This would show very clearly just how little chance there was that the plane would have exploded over water, no matter which route it was assigned, or its take-off time at Heathrow. If you have the debris trail sketched in as well, as it fell east of Lockerbie, it would be extraordinarily compelling.

If you can, it might be best to use the projection used on the FlightAware site, because that is more appropriate for the latitude. And then you could pull out and show the four hours of Atlantic that lay ahead.

That's what makes the presence of the MST-13 fragment so incongruous, even before you start looking at the anomalies in the chain of evidence. Irrespective of who carried out the bombing, if they had had a countdown timer of that nature, they would not have set it for 7.03. It is completely batsqueak insane. Especially when you factor in the possibility of the plane losing its slot and the device going pop quite unspectacularly on the tarmac.

PS. The point about the terrorists not knowing which route the plane would be assigned is yet one more thing that nixes Charles's silly theory - if we needed another one! He postulates people on the ground "half way between Lockerbie and Prestwick", waiting for the plane to appear and the suitcase bomb to detonate. Er, how would they possibly have known to position themselves there? They'd have been more likely to have been lurking somewhere around Galway.

Rolfe said...

The other thing we can see from the FlightAware site is the far end of the route. Like the first section, it has a range of possible approach paths, from way in the north over Labrador (where PA103 would have come in, having left on a northerly course), to a southerly extremity that approaches over the ocean until its pretty close to NY.

However, the southerly path is quite unusual, and the vast majority of these flights spend up to two hours traversing south-east Canada before they get to NY. Anyone actively intending to bring such a flight down over land (traceable clothes notwithstanding) would surely have gone for that end.

If you figured out the earliest such a flight would possibly land at JFK (they can be a bit early if they have a following wind), and subtracted about half an hour, you'd be there. Virtually guaranteed explosion over land, and possibly over the actual USA rather than neutral Ireland (as was the probable victim by the plot as alleged). Unless the flight was actually cancelled, no chance at all it could go off on land. At "worst", it would go off over the ocean after all.

There was news a year or so ago of a modern terrorist plot that was intercepted that was going for exactly that result.

So "they may have wanted the explosion to happen over land" really doesn't fly either, any way you slice it.

Rolfe said...

By the way, the little wiggle on your schematic at the beginning of the course is in the wrong direction. You've taken it from a flight that took off west to east. However, PA103 would have taken off east to west, into that strong wind.

Might be best just to straighten it out and show the flight as heading north from the start, as it's unimportant anyway.

Rolfe said...

Finally, for tonight.

The only thing you're left with to make sense of the timer in the context of the Lockerbie detonation is that the timer was wrongly set or malfunctioned. Personally, I think that's clutching at straws.

There was no such suggestion at Zeist. On the contrary, Edwin's questionable evidence about the Olympus timer, if accepted, would have supported the notion that the 7pm detonation was intentional on the part of Megrahi and Fhimah. It seems the prosecution never had any second thoughts about the timing, or thought it was something that had to be explained.

Of course the MST-13 is a countdown timer, so it would have been set for elapsed time from the time it was activated. (Not like the Olympus, to which you could say, go off at 7 tomorrow evening.) You'd have to work out the number of hours elapsed from "now" to the desired detonation time, allowing for the time zone, and then set it accordingly.

Not completely straightforward, and always possible to make a mistake if you're under a lot of stress. But we're talking an error of 3 to 4 hours, realistically. This is pretty bad, and so pretty unlikely.

There was also a suggestion that the MST-13 had a fault which might cause it to explode early - conveniently, just the right amount of "early" to match the 7pm detonation.

Other apologists have suggested that the bomb may have been intended for another plane entirely, one that would have been over mid-Atlantic by 7pm. However, the entire thesis put forward by the prosecution was that the suitcase had been deliberately tagged for PA103A and then PA103. Any suggestion of a mis-routed bag throws the entire Erac printout evidence right on the scrapheap, and since that tenuous scrap is the only actual evidence to support the entire thesis of the Malta-Frankfurt-Heathrow routing, then junking that junks the entire case.

Personally, I think all this is getting so speculative and so tenuous that it's ridiculous. If there was some actual evidence for the rest of the alleged plot, like an actual trace of the bomb being introduced in the morning on Malta, then it would maybe be something that had to be considered. However, postulating either a mistake or a malfunction to try to get the detonation time to fit a plot for which there's no real evidence otherwise is getting a bit desperate in my opinion.

Maybe that's why the prosecution didn't go there, no not at all.

Caustic Logic said...

postulating either a mistake or a malfunction to try to get the detonation time to fit a plot for which there's no real evidence otherwise is getting a bit desperate in my opinion.

Bingo. Desperate like putting up Giaka, Gauci, and Bollier as your main three witnesses. Desperate like faking even the radio to faintly point at Libya. ...

I've taken note of your recommendations and re-done the post's flight path graphic, a little researched this time. I didn't realize clearly before that PK/689 was found way over in England. Somehow I thought all the letter sectors, like K, ran only across Scotland. But there are plenty of PK items found around there, wherever exactly K sector was marked off.

ebol said...

More facts in context of green MST-13 timer DUPLICATE PT/35(b):

Seit Ende 1990 haben Edwin Bollier, MEBO Ltd. und sein Rechtsanwalt versucht, das auf einer professionellen Polaroid Polizeifoto abgebildete MST-13 Timerfragment im Origial zu begutachten. Lord Advocate von Scotland, Peter Fraser hatte es 10 Jahre lang mit "fadenscheinigen" Begründungen verhindert, das angeblich in Lockerbie aufgefundene reale MST-13 Fragment (PT/35) zu begutachten !
Eine Begründung von Lord Advocate Fraser war, dass 1990 das MST-13 Fragment als Beweis für ein zukünftiges Gerichtsverfahren versiegelt wurde und für eine Begutachtung nicht mehr zur Verfügung stehe...

Man stelle sich vor, wie schnell Lord Advocate Peter Fraser, Bollier eine Begutachtung ermöglicht hätte, wenn Bollier das MST-13 Fragment einem nach Libyen gelieferten Timer zugeteilt hätte ?

Wie bekannt konnte Bollier die MST-13 Fragmente PT/13(b) und DP/31(a) erst ab 13.September 1999 bei Scottish Police in Dumfries begutachten.

Die Aussagen von ex FBI Experte Tom Thurman, ex CIO Stuart Henderson (Scottish Police) und ex FBI und Task Force chief, Richard Marquise, im Documentary film "Lockerbie revisited", by Regisseur Gideon Levy bestätigen, dass Tom Thurman das MST-13 Fragment (PT/35) ab 11.-15. Juni 1990 (Conference FBI Academy in Quantico) zuerst auf einer Polizei-Foto, dann im Original begutachten konnte !

Diese Diskrepanz gegenüber den gemachten Aussagen, unterstützt die Tatsache, dass die 'Scottish Officials' nach ca. 2 Monaten, ein grünes MST-13 Duplikat (PT/35) mit 9 Fiberglas-Gitter, dem FBI Experten Tom Thurman zur Begutachtung vorgelegt haben, da seit der forensischen Untersuchung bei Fa. Siemens am (27th of April 1990) das reale MST-13 Fragment bestehend aus 8 Fiberglas Gitter, in zwei Teile PT/35(b) und
DP/31(a) zersägt war...

by Edwin Bollier MEBO Ltd., Switzerland. URL: www.lockerbie.ch

Rolfe said...

Referring to your most recent post, Adam, and ignoring the intervening spam....

Of course nobody at Zeist suggested the timing was a mistake. Since the defence didn't make a big deal about the irrationality of setting an electronic timer so early, nobody had to explain it.

I was really referring to some of the Official Version apologists, in particular some of the JREF contingent, who would rather dream up individual, imaginative explanations for each problem point in isolation, than look at the whole picture and what it shows. In that context, we've seen the "well if I was a terrorist maybe I'd want the shock value of an explosion on land" suggestion, while forgetting that the best bit of land to aim for would have been the approach to JFK at the other end, and overlooking the little problem that with the 7.03 version, an explosion on land (the Heathrow tarmac) was a distinct possibility. And then in the next breath they say that the terrorists didn't care that the clothes might be traceable, because they expected all the evidence to be lost in the Atlantic.


Yes, the Toshiba manual page was found in Northumberland, near Morpeth. If you listen to Deccy and Geoff Horton, you can tell they're English. I keep forgetting the lie of the land isn't familiar to you.

The heavy items all landed in Scotland, albeit close to the border in some cases. Only lighter stuff was blown as far as England, but some of that was blown a very long way. Morpeth is at least 60 miles from Lockerbie, as the crow flies. While the stuff that was picked up in Scotland was relatively carefully supervised, as far as was possible, the stuff in Northumberland was mostly people litter-picking then handing in bags of stuff to their local police stations. I'm perfectly sure the policeman who gave evidence about having received the Toshiba manual from Deccy Horton had no recollection at all of that particular piece of paper.

ebol said...

Correction in my last article:
PT/13 (b) is wrong, correct PT/35 (b)

ebol said...

Es muss ein fundamentales Interesse dafür geben, wieso sich (Adam/Rolfe & Partner) für die Erhaltung des kriminellen Tatbestandes des MST-13 Fragments "PT/35", mit (JREF) Fotomontagen infrage stellen ? Es ist zuerwarten, dass alias (Multi)Leaks) demnächst mit neuen Details blabbermouth Bollier's Ermittlungs-Ergebnisse ergänzen -.-

by Edwin Bollier, MEBO Ltd., Switzerland.

Caustic Logic said...

I'm obviously still hazy on my accent differentiation, but I knew (half-aware) they were in England, just let it slide and get mixed-up again. Mainly I forgot how slated the border is - thought it was more east-west.

I'm not performing to full power on the blog and forum lately, with divided attention as you know. But I'm performing.

Edwin: I've given my reasons for denying your nonsense. See above, and around. It's got nothing to do with being part of a CIA plot to suppress you, or whatever you're implying. Have a nice day.

ebol said...

Aktion "Amsterdam"

Continued with the *conspiracy of spring 1986, against the leader of Libya, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi (air strike of Libya, code-named Operation El Dorado Canyon) *'MISSION AMSTERDAM' followed.
Um Libya an der Beteiligung in einem internationalen Attentat verwickeln zukönnen, musste ein starker Beweis organisiert werden, welcher als Link eindeutig nach Libyen führte !

Zu diesem Zweck wurde eine US Deligation unter James Casey (Federal Bureau of Investigation) Richard Louis Sherrow und Edward Owen (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms) zusammengestellt, welche aus speziefischen Gründen, Ende 1986 in West Afrika die Stadt Lome in Togo besuchte.

> Q In 1986, were you (Mr. Sherrow) requested by the United States Department of State to go to West Africa? A Yes, I was.---
Q Mr. Sherrow, were there any particular items that took your interest? A Yes. The explosive items and some electronic timers.<

Dort wurde im Auftrag von (CIA ?) beim Militär von Togo geliefertes Militärmaterial von Libyen, wie diverse Sprengstoff Arten Detonatoren und ein MST-13 Timer, mit Erlaubnis von President Eyadema in Besitz genommen.
Das Material wurde verbotenerweise in Diplomaten Bag von Togo via Amsterdam, dann mit einem PanAm Flug nach Washington D.C. transportiert und später dem Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in "custody" übergeben.

> A (Sherrow) I was requested to take it to CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia, and give a briefing on what I found. Q And did you do that? A I did. Q And did you take the timer with you in order to give that briefing? A Yes.<

Continuation follows: Besuch von Hassan Badri im "Autumn" 1988 in Washington D.C--- Besuch bei MEBO Ltd. November-Dezember 1988---Order 40 Stück MST-13 Timer für Libyen...

by Edwin Bollier, MEBO Ltd. Switzerland. URL: www.lockerbie.ch

Rolfe said...

Caustic Logic: Edwin: I've given my reasons for denying your nonsense. See above, and around. It's got nothing to do with being part of a CIA plot to suppress you, or whatever you're implying. Have a nice day.

Talking of anyone being involved in CIA plots....

The Maltese Double Cross: In the Stasi files, the name of Edwin Bollier, code name Rubin, Stasi agent, his control Joachim Hentzchel, code named Wenzel. Meetings in Berlin safe houses, German girls in the Inter hotels. [Paperwork relates to Walter Joachim Hentzschel, can’t see Bollier’s name.] The Stasi had discovered Bollier was selling everything to everyone. The timers only the Libyans were supposed to have to the Stasi, and American C4 explosives, and Italian remote radio-controlled detonators. Two million deutschmarks one Stasi payment per year. And selling directly to terrorists: The Red Army Faction, Palestinians, other Arabs, in both Germanies. The Stasi even conclude Bollier must have been working for the CIA, because he seemed to be able to get very special American equipment so easily for the Stasi. Double, triple, quadruple agent. A truly neutral Swiss businessman.

Caustic Logic said...

Indeed, a shady merchant of armaments for killing, in contact with intel agencies on all sides, spinning tall tales, and the first to suggest to the CIA that they should blame Libya for the Lockerbie bombing.

As it so happens, however, I just banned Edwin from commenting here yesterday or so, so this might be seen as a pile-up on a defenseless and voiceless persecutee.

But oh well. You pile crap on Libya and Megrahi when it mattered, 1989-91, and then loudly proclaim your conversion to help the Libyans, with the worst of baseless arguments, to claim $200,000,000 from victims' families, while praising Gaddafi like a clown and using the classic trick of spinning debunkings into suppression, and you just might get banned and insulted by more decent folk.

baz said...

Rolfe writes (31.12.10)
"Some people say, well, maybe the terrorists wanted the plane to explode over land".

Well if the plan to blame Libya predated the bombing (hence the Malta clothing) and the PFLP-GC plan was guided or manipulated (say through CIA "asset" the bombmaker Marwan Khreesat) then it would be far preferable that the plane comes down over land in order to exploit the atrocity (for example to recover the Malta clothing and the MST-13 timer).

Of course a barometric trigger (or a remote control device) allows far greater predictive accuracy as to where the explosion will occur (although I suspect the fuselage ended on the wrong side of the border).

Caustic Logic said...

Hey, that's an interesting thought. The clothes are tricky, and we don't have a consensus on them. The possibilities are:

1) Legitimate part of the bomb package, bought by the 6-foot man on Nov. 23
2) Planted after the fact to lead to Malta and a compliant shopkeeper, with Libya and al-Megrahi in mind (ultimately, tho the Scottish cops probably didn't know it yet)
3) Planted ahead of time for the about the same purpose and a legit part of the bomb package. Planted there by ... the Iranians? The CIA?

I've been kind of torn between 1) and 2), but I can see some version of 3) as well.

But this is a theory you've had around a while, and IIRC, it called on Gauci actually describing December 7 as the purchase date, to implicate Megrahi. But as we've seen, his first and best words are not so convenient, leading to some ambiguity in the set-up I still believe in.

Hence I suspect the CIA was ready to pin it on Megrahi in 1989, no later than whenever the Malta clues really first started appearing. But the on-the-ground realization of this set-up wasn't managed 'til later, with Harry Bell and his circular reasoning and such bringing it back on the target in early '91.

baz said...

I am not sure there is any difference between possibility 1 & 3. Either the clothing was in the primary suitcase or (with the timer?) was introduced at Tundergarth along with other material, perhaps even a corpse. Even in possibility 2 "planted after the fact" the clothing was (almost) undoubtedly purchased several weeks ahead of the bombing. What was the purchaser's (or his principals's) purpose - to establish a forensic link with "Libya" 4-5 weeks in advance of the bombing?

The matter of the timer and the clothing are intimately related. Their Lordships (at Camp Zeist) were persuaded of the official version of events that the bomb was detonated by a timer and the bomb could have exploded almost anywhere - over the Atlantic - Scotland - England -Heathrow (runway or elsewhere on the ground) over the channel, France, Frankfurt ect. The notion of somebody buying the clothing weeks in advance in order to subject it to an explosion then plant the material in order to fit-up some (perhaps as yet unspecified) Libyan is preposterous or extremely unlkikely if the crash could occur virtually anywhere on route from Malta to New York. This may be why their Lordships (rightly) rejected the notion.

However with a barometric trigger (or a remote control device) the suggestion is not as outlandish.

I maintain there is evidence of a plan to incriminate Libya from mid-October when security guards removed Abu Talb from an air Libya flight to Tripoli and he went instead to Malta - second best place to establish the connection with Libya. I suspect a plan to bomb one (or several) olanes on the 26th Oct.1988 was thwarted.

Caustic Logic said...

Perhaps even a corpse?

There's a potential big difference between 1 and 3, in that the one can be just a reaction, and the other requires not only allowing the attack or carrying it out, but building the cover-up right in. Instinctively, the whole Libya-dunnit storyline seems slapped together in response to something they should have seen - quicker by far than most realize (early-mid 89) but not early enough to be sewing itself up with the actual bombing.

But otherwise, that's all fair speculation, and it might be more than that if I had the time to dwell on it deeper.

One thing I could well buy, knowing how expected an Iranian revenge was, how needed a cover-up might become, advance fishing for an alternate with Libya could have been in the works before the bombing. Not for PA103 in particular, just for whatever hopefully doesn't happen wherever...

Rolfe said...

I really can't buy any story that doesn't allow Tony Gauci's original evidence to be genuine. I don't think he's smart enough to have played a part for all that time, with a view to a pay-off that didn't happen for more than ten years.

This either means that the tall dark mystery shopper on 23rd November was for real, and almost certainly one of the terrorist gang (or a contact), or that we have a LIHOP/MIHOP scenario in which a highly unlikely piece of misdirection was put in place before the actual event. I say highly unlikely because who would really have predicted that Tony would have recalled the purchase in the detail he did? Months later? Honestly?

Occam's razor says the mystery shopper was real, and a contact of the terrorist gang. I suspect a deliberate misdirect on the part of the real bombers, intending to put the bomb on board at Heathrow, just throwing in a possibility that might distract the investigation a thousand miles away from the real scene of the crime. And that it worked far better than they anticipated.

I think there was a general political will that Libya should be blamed right from the get-go. Reagan made that pretty obvious at the time. I think there was a concerted effort to get evidence to point to Libya from about March 1989 (leading to the appearance of the Toshiba manual fragment and the timer fragment later in 1989).

However, I don't think the investigation knew about Megrahi's presence at Malta on the 21st until the autumn of 1991, when they learned of it from none other than Herr Edwin Bollier. I think it was only then that the effort to pin the purchase of the clothes and the introduction of the bomb on Megrahi himself was set in motion.

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